PREDICTING CHANGES IN BIOCLIMATIC POTENTIAL IN THE TERRITORY OF BELARUS FOR THE PERIOD OF 2016–2035
https://doi.org/10.29235/1817-7204-2018-56-1-51-64
Abstract
Active temperature increase, trends in atmospheric precipitation changes and other indicators necessitates compilation of climate forecasts both for the near future and for distant period. Development of such prospective scenarios is essential for successful adaptation of agricultural production in the prevailing agro-climatic conditions. The aim of the paper is prediction of changes of bioclimatic potential (BCP) in the territory of Belarus for the near future, to determine general patterns of BCP changes in the future and to assess the favorable bioclimatic conditions for growing specific crops. Forecast of BCP changes is developed for the period of 2016–2035 based on the global climate model HadCM3. The method of D. I. Shashko was used for BCP calculation. Based on the data on optimal heat and moisture resources for growth and development of agricultural crops, the optimal BCP values were calculated. Prediction showed further significant increase in BCP values during the forecast period, while maintaining the trends of changes peculiar of the period of modern climate warming. It is determined that the general patterns of spatial BCP changes, including optimal BCP for growing specific crops, will be relevant in the future.
About the Authors
V. F. Loginov
The Institute for Nature Management, the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk
Belarus
Academician, D.Sc. (Geographical), Professor
Belarus
Academician, D.Sc. (Geographical), Professor
M. A. Khitrykau
The Institute for Nature Management, the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk
Belarus
Postgraduate Student (Geographical)
Belarus
Postgraduate Student (Geographical)
References
1. Loginov V. F. Climate change in Belarus and its impact on the key sectors of economy (agriculture, forestry and water sector). Minsk, Belarusian Research Center “Ecology”, 2010. 152 p. (in Russian).
2. Gringof I. G., Kleshchenko A. D. Bases of agricultural meteorology. Volume I. The needs of crops for agrometeorological conditions and dangerous weather conditions for agriculture production. Obninsk, VNIIGMI-WDC, 2011. 808 p. (in Russian).
3. Loginov V. F., Sachok G. I., Mikutskii V. S., Mel’nik V. I., Kolyada V. V. Climate changes in Belarus and its consequences. Minsk, Tonpik Publ., 2003. 330 p. (in Russian).
4. Loginov V. F. Global and regional climate changes: reasons and consequences. Minsk, TetraSystems Publ., 2008. 496 p. (in Russian).
5. Loginov V. F., Mikutskii V. S. Climate changes: trends, cycles, pauses. Minsk, Belaruskaya navuka Publ., 2017. 179 p. (in Russian).
6. Koloskov P. I. Climatic factor of agriculture and agroclimatic zoning. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1974. 328 p. (in Russian).
7. Sapozhnikova S. A. Experience in agro-climatic zoning of the USSR. Voprosy agroklimaticheskogo raionirovaniya SSSR: sbornik statei [Issues of agro-climatic zoning of the USSR: collection of articles]. Moscow, 1958, pp. 14–37 (in Russian).
8. Shashko D. I. Agroclimatic zoning of the USSR. Moscow, Kolos Publ., 1967. 335 p. (in Russian).
9. Shashko D. I. Agroclimatic resources of the USSR. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1985. 247 p. (in Russian).
10. Bocharova A. A. Assessment of current agro-climatic conditions in the west of Belgorod region. Mezhdunarodnaya studencheskaya elektronnaya nauchnaya konferentsiya «Studencheskii nauchnyi forum», 15 fevralya – 31 marta 2014 g. [VI International Student Electronic Scientific Conference “Student Science Forum”, February 15 – March 31, 2014]. Available at: https://www.scienceforum.ru/2014/779/4141 (accessed 25.01.2017) (in Russian).
11. Ermakova L. N., Tolmacheva N. I., Bezmaternykh E. A. The evaluation of agro-climatic resources within the territory of Perm region. Geograficheskii vestnik [Geographical Bulletin], 2010, no. 2, pp. 52–58 (in Russian).
12. Sirotenko O. D. Imitation system “Сlimate-crop of the USSR”. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and Hydrology], 1995, no. 4, pp. 107–114 (in Russian).
13. Sirotenko O. D., Avashina E. V., Pavlova V. N. Sensitivity of agriculture in Russia to climate change, atmospheric chemical composition and soil fertility. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and Hydrology], 1991, no. 4, pp. 67–73 (in Russian).
14. Gordeev A. V. Bioclimatic potential of Russia: theory and practice. Moscow, KMK Publishing House, 2006. 516 p. (in Russian).
15. Mishchenko Z. A. Agroclimatology. Kiev, 2009. 512 p. (in Russian).
16. Vol’vach O. V. The assessment of bioclimatic potential in Ukrainian forest steppe provinces related to maize growing. Ukraїns’kii gіdrometeorologіchnii zhurnal = Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, 2011, no. 8, pp. 162–169 (in Russian).
17. Kolyada V. V. Agroclimatic assessment of productivity of crops in Belarus. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2014, no. 25, pp. 53–60 (in Russian).
18. Kolyada V. V. Bioclimatic potential of Belarus in comparison with the CIS and EU countries. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2013, no. 24, pp. 17–26 (in Russian).
19. Loginov V. F., Khitrikov M. A. Spatiotemporal changes of bioclimatic potential of the territory of Belarus. Vestsi Natsyyanal’nai akademii navuk Belarusi. Seryya agrarnykh navuk = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. Agrarian series, 2017, no. 1, pp. 42–57 (in Russian).
20. Brovka Yu. A. Regional agroecological assessment of adverse weather and climate conditions on the territory of Belarus. Ph.D. thesis in geography. Minsk, 2007. 209 p. (in Russian).
21. Vitchenko A. N. Theoretical and practical bases for estimation of agroecological potential of landscape in Belarus. Dr. geogr. sci. abstr. diss. Minsk, 1996. 29 p. (in Russian).
22. Kolyada V. V., Shubskaya Yu. A. Assessment of the factors of changes of agrothermic resources of Belarus. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2010, no. 17, pp. 118–125 (in Russian).
23. Kolyada V. V. Application of analytical dependences for studying the dynamics of grain crops yield. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2005, no. 11, pp. 58–65 (in Russian).
24. Kolyada V. V., Shubskaya Yu. A. Structural and functional changes of agrocenoses of Belarus in the context of climate warming. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2009, no. 16, pp. 122–131 (in Russian).
25. Loginov V. F. Agroclimatic assessment of the effectiveness of spatial distribution of arable land for different crops. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2003, no. 9, pp. 59–61 (in Russian).
26. Kayumov M. K. Programming of field crops productivity. 2nd ed. Moscow, Rosagropromizdat Publ., 1989. 368 p. (in Russian).
27. Stocker T. F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K., Tignor M. B., Allen S. K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Yu, Bex V., Midgley P. M. (eds.). Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change. New York, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2013. 1535 p.
28. Loginov V. F., Brovka Yu. A. Seasonal climate changes features of Belarus. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2014, no. 25, pp. 16–22 (in Russian).
Review
Views: 645
Email this article 