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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. Agrarian Series

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PREDICTING CHANGES IN BIOCLIMATIC POTENTIAL IN THE TERRITORY OF BELARUS FOR THE PERIOD OF 2016–2035

https://doi.org/10.29235/1817-7204-2018-56-1-51-64

Abstract

Active temperature increase, trends in atmospheric precipitation changes and other indicators necessitates compilation of climate forecasts both for the near future and for distant period. Development of such prospective scenarios is essential for successful adaptation of agricultural production in the prevailing agro-climatic conditions. The aim of the paper is prediction of changes of bioclimatic potential (BCP) in the territory of Belarus for the near future, to determine general patterns of BCP changes in the future and to assess the favorable bioclimatic conditions for growing specific crops. Forecast of BCP changes is developed for the period of 2016–2035 based on the global climate model HadCM3. The method of D. I. Shashko was used for BCP calculation. Based on the data on optimal heat and moisture resources for growth and development of agricultural crops, the optimal BCP values were calculated. Prediction showed further significant increase in BCP values during the forecast period, while maintaining the trends of changes peculiar of the period of modern climate warming. It is determined that the general patterns of spatial BCP changes, including optimal BCP for growing specific crops, will be relevant in the future.

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ISSN 1817-7204 (Print)
ISSN 1817-7239 (Online)