Forecasting methodologies for development of foreign markets of agricultural and food products of the Republic of Belarus

The strengthening of external factors and emerging crises of 2020–2022 related to the global epidemiological situation of COVID-19 and trade barriers, had a significant impact on the timely execution of foreign trade contracts, the efficiency of supply chains, environment of the global food market and the market for inputs for production agricultural products and food. At the same time, the unprecedented sanctions policy against the Republic of Belarus required a more sustainable agri-food system and the development of fundamentally new scientifically substantiated directions for diversifying export supplies. Step-by-step methodology has been developed for forecasting the development of foreign markets for agri-food products, which is a set of goals, objectives, an algorithm for conducting and an analytical product based on Microsoft Excel analysis tools, based on a set of factors impacting the trading process. In addition, a system of economic indicators for assessing the functioning of food markets and mechanisms for product access, including customs-tariff and non-tariff measures, has been substantiated. The methodology was tested based on example of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as the main trading partners of the Republic of Belarus, as well as the countries of Asia (Vietnam, Iran, China, Singapore) and Africa (Algeria, Egypt). The scientific novelty of the development lies in using a step-by-step algorithm for assessing the market situation of a particular country when making rational management decisions on the effective use of the existing potential and resources of agro-industrial complex organizations in order to enter existing and new markets (segments). These developments can be used by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus, the “Belgospischeprom” concern and other subjects of the agricultural business in preparation of analytical reviews of the country’s market environments for agricultural and food products.

1. Kireyenkа N., Vаitko I. Scientific concepts and methodological approaches to the formation of a monitoring system for foreign markets for agricultural products. Agrarnaya ekonomika = Agrarian Economics, 2021, no. 8 (315), pp. 29–45 (in Russian).

2. Kireyenka N. V., Kazakevich I. A. Diversification of state support of Belarus’s agriculture with regard to international requirements and obligations. Belorusskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Belarusian Economic Journal, 2018, no. 4, pp. 65–76 (in Russian).

3. Gusakov V. G., Baigot L. N., Karpovich N. V., Baigot M. S., Akhramovich V. S., Makutsenya E. P., Glushakova D. S. Improving the efficiency of foreign trade of Agro-Industrial Complex of Belarus in the conditions of the development of the international trade and economic space. Minsk, Belaruskaya navuka Publ., 2020. 237 p. (in Russian).

4. Gusakov V. How to ensure sustainability, competitiveness and efficiency of the national agro-industrial complex. Agrarnaya ekonomika = Agrarian Economics, 2020, no. 2 (297), pp. 3–11 (in Russian).

5. Ahramovich V. S. Export potential of agro-food sector in Belarus: trends, challenges and ways to increase efficiency realization. Ekonomicheskie voprosy razvitiya sel’skogo khozyaistva Belarusi: mezhvedomstvennyi tematicheskii sbornik = Economic issues of agricultural development of Belarus: cross sectoral subject collection. Minsk, 2019, iss. 47, pp. 17–25 (in Russian).

6. Akhramovich V. The methodical approaches to the estimation of agrifood export potential. Agrarnaya ekonomika = Agrarian Economics, 2014, no. 8, p. 43–50 (in Russian).

7. Baigot M. S. Mechanisms of regulation of foreign economic activity of Belarus in the agrarian sphere: questions of theory, methodology, practice. Minsk, Belaruskaya navuka Publ., 2010. 367 p. (in Russian).

8. Gusakov V. G., Baigot M. S., Baigot L. N., Kireenko N. V., Karpovich N. V., Guk E. P. Guidelines for the development of foreign trade relations in connection with the need for regional and international integration in the agro-industrial complex, including Belarus’ accession to the WTO. Nauchnye printsipy regulirovaniya razvitiya APK: predlozheniya i mekhanizmy realizatsii, 2012 [Scientific principles of regulation of the development of the agro-industrial complex: proposals and implementation mechanisms, 2012]. Minsk, 2012, pp. 37–44 (in Russian).

9. Gusakov V. G., Baigot M. S., Bel’skii V. I. Foreign trade relations between Belarus and the European Union in the agricultural sector: problems and prospects. Minsk, The Institute of System Researches in Agroindustrial Complex of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 2012. 190 p. (in Russian).

10. Bel’skii V. I. Economic mechanism of state regulation of agricultural production: theory, methodology, practice. Minsk, The Institute of System Researches in Agroindustrial Complex of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 2018. 265 p. (in Russian).

11. Bel’skii V. I., Karpovich N. V. Mechanism for the balanced development of foreign trade in agro-food products of Belarus within the framework of the EAEU. Minsk, The Institute of System Researches in Agroindustrial Complex of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 2019. 199 p. (in Russian).

12. Daineka A., Berasneu D. Foreign trade and economic development in Belarus. Nauka i innovatsii = Science and Innovations, 2019, no. 1, pp. 4–12 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.29235/1818-9857-2019-1-4-12

13. Daineko A. E. (ed.). International competitiveness of the real sector of the economy of Belarus. Minsk, Belarusian National Technical University, 2020. 228 p. (in Russian).

14. Turban G. V. World trade and trade restrictions in the context of COVID-19 in accordance with WTO rules. Oikonomos: Journal of Social Market Economy, 2020, no. 2 (17), pp. 27–38 (in Russian).

15. Guo Sh., Turban G. V. Non-tariff measures in modern trade policy. Oikonomos: Journal of Social Market Economy, 2021, no. 3 (21), pp. 22–35 (in Russian).

16. Akulich I. L., Gerchikov I. Z. Marketing. Minsk, Svetoch Publ., 2004. 395 p. (in Russian).

17. Baranovskii S. I., Lagodich L. V. Strategic marketing. Minsk, IVTs Minfina Publ., 2005. 299 p. (in Russian).

18. Poleshchuk I. I. (ed.). Logistics. Minsk, Belarus State Economic University, 2007. 431 p. (in Russian).

19. Drozdov P. A. Fundamentals of logistics in the agro-industrial complex. 2nd ed. Minsk, Grevtsov Publ., 2013. 288 p. (in Russian).

20. Durovich A. P. Marketing research. Minsk, TetraSistems Publ., 2009. 432 p. (in Russian).

21. Elovoi I. A., Evsyuk A. A., Yasinskii V. V. Formation of the transport and logistics system of the Republic of Belarus. Gomel, Belarusian State University of Transport, 2007. 155 p. (in Russian).

22. Kosova A. L. The mechanism for improving the logistics system in the agro-industrial complex of Belarus in the context of regional trade and economic integration. Minsk, The Institute of System Researches in Agroindustrial Complex of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 2022. 179 p. (in Russian).

23. Efimenko A. G. Formation of a market system of motor transport services for the agro-industrial complex. Moscow, INFRA-M Publ., 2012. 223 p. (in Russian).

24. Zorina T. G., Zubkov V. E. Modern paradigm of logistics potential of the region. Scientific works of the Belarusian State Economic University. Minsk, 2019, iss. 12, pp. 200–209 (in Russian).

25. Miasnikova O. V. Principles of production and logistics systems forming in the conditions of economy digital transformation. Biznes. Innovatsii. Ekonomika = Business. Innovation. Economics. Minsk, 2020, iss. 4, pp. 178–185 (in Russian).

26. Poleschuk I. I. Belorussian logistic potential: estimation and usage. Belorusskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Belarusian Economic Journal, 2013, no. 3, pp. 87–97 (in Russian).

27. Kireyenka N. V. Distribution network of Belarus on foreign food markets. Vestsi Natsyyanal’nai akademii navuk Belarusi. Seryya agrarnykh navuk = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. Agrarian series, 2015, no. 1, pp. 10–21 (in Russian).

28. Kireyenka N. V. New configuration of global production and sales chains in the agricultural market. Belorusskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Belarusian Economic Journal, 2022, no. 1, pp. 62–78 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.46782/1818-45102022-1-62-78

29. Anderson K. Measuring effects of trade policy distortions: how far have we come? The World Economy, 2003, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 413–440. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00530

30. Bora B., Kuwahara A., Laird S. Quantification of non-tariff measures. New York, Geneva, UN, 2002. 41 p.

31. Mansfield E. D., Busch M. L. The political economy of nontariff barriers: a cross-national analysis. International Organization, 1995, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 723–749. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300028496

32. Chen N., Novy D. Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries. Journal of International Economics, 2011, vol. 85, no. 2, pp. 206–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.07.005

33. Tarasov V. I., Svinukhov V. G., Sukhov S. M. Non-tariff measures to protect the agro-food market. Moscow, All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, 2005. 128 p. (in Russian).

34. Dyumulen I. I. World Trade Organization: economics, politics, law. 2nd ed. Moscow, All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade, 2012. 357 p. (in Russian).

35. Dyumulen I. I. Non-tariff measures in modern international trade: some questions of the theory; practice and rules of the WTO; Russia’s interests. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2016, no. 2, pp. 3–20 (in Russian).

36. Kiselev S. V. Russian agri-food export in the context of pandemic shock. Nauchnye issledovaniya ekonomicheskogo fakul’teta. Elektronnyi zhurnal = Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, 2021, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 46–56 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.38050/2078-3809-2021-13-3-46-56

37. Ushachev I. G., Paptsov A. G., Serkov A. F., Maslova V. V., Chekalin V. S., Zaruk N. F. [et al.]. Agroindustrial complex of Russia: price relations in the context of transition to an export-oriented economy and integration into the EAEU. Moscow, Nauchnyi konsul’tant Publ., 2019. 292 p. (in Russian).

38. Paptsov A. G., Shelamova N. A. World agrofood system and global climatic change. APK: ekonomika, upravlenie = AIC: Economics, Management, 2017, no. 11, pp. 81–94 (in Russian).

39. Paptsov A. G., Ushachev I. G., Altukhov A. I., Arzhantsev S. A., Bykov G. E., Logacheva O. V. [et al.]. Export of agricultural products of Russia: trends and development. Moscow, Sam Poligrafist Publ., 2020. 255 p. (in Russian).

40. Serova E. V., Shik O. V. World agrarian policy. Moscow, Higher School of Economics, 2007. 407 p. (in Russian).

41. Serova E. V. Challenges for the development of the Russian agricultural sector in the mid-term. Russian Journal of Economics, 2020, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 1–5. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.52194 Kireyenka N. V. Methodological approaches to analysis of access and exit conditions to foreign food markets.

42. Oikonomos: Journal of Social Market Economy, 2021, no. 3 (21), pp. 6–21 (in Russian).