RISKS IN AGRICULTURE: ASSESSMENT OF INFLUENCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE GRAIN CROPS YIELD IN BELARUSIAN POLESYE

Based on the mathematical model of the crop, an algorithm for quantitative assessment of the agricultural risk for crops cultivated in specific soil and climatic conditions has been developed. Classification of agricultural risks according to crop losses is proposed, similar to the gradation adopted in the assessment of insurance payments, but more detailed. It has been established that quantitative indicators of agricultural risk do not depend on the level of crop nutrition, and for each year are determined only by precipitation and air temperatures during the active growing season. Calculations of agricultural risk for grain crops cultivated in Belarusian Polesye are made. Of the five years of barley cultivation, one year (2007) can be characterized as critical in terms of heat and moisture supply during the growing season. Crop yield losses due to adverse weather conditions exceeded 50 %. In 2005, the minimum risk for the cultivation of barley, related to sustainable farming, was obtained. Cultivation under weather conditions in 2006 and 2008 characterized as low-risk farming, and 2009 conditions should be attributed to high-risk barley cultivation. According to the average indicator of the risk rate of barley cultivation for five years of research, which amounted to 28.6 %, the region, in terms of its weather and climate conditions, corresponds to agriculture with an average risk. For winter triticale, out of four years of cultivation, one year (2007) can be characterized as critical in terms of heat and moisture supply during the growing season. Crop yield losses exceeded 50 %. In 2008, crop losses were in line with sustainable farming. Cultivation in 2006 for winter triticale was of a high risk, and in 2009 – low risk. On average for 4 years, the indicator of risk rate of cultivation of crops amounted to 28.1%. Consequently, for winter triticale, the region of Belarusian Polesye, in terms of its weather and climatic conditions, as well as for barley, corresponds to agriculture with an average risk.

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