MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION FOR IMPROVEMENT OF RELIABILITY OF EVALUATION OF THE FIELD AGRONOMIC EXPERIMENT RESULTS

The programming (simulation) of yield in the area of “risky farming” that Belarus belongs to according to data from a single-factor experiment considering only the food mode, can lead to unacceptably large errors in the calculations. These errors can easily be avoided by increasing the factorality of agronomic experiment by using standard meteorological data processed using mathematical model of crop yields. A mathematical model of environmental factors effect on crop yields is proposed and tested. It is shown that the accuracy of yield simulation (calculation) increases with the growing number of crop-forming factors taken into account. The possibilities of mathematical simulation allowing to switch from one-factor to multifactorial agronomic research are demonstrated, involving meteorological data characterizing the moisture and heat availability of the vegetation period when analyzing the results of the experiment as additional information. The moisture supply conditions can be characterized quite accurately by atmospheric precipitation during the vegetation period, and the heat supply – by the maximum daily air temperatures in the same period. Inclusion in analysis of additional water and heat factors of yield makes it possible not only to increase the factorality of field experiment, but also to substantially increase the conclusions validity according to the results based on the proposed mathematical model.

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