SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES OF BIOCLIMATIC POTENTIAL OF THE TERRITORY OF BELARUS

Bioclimatic potential (BCP) is one of the most universal and practical comprehensive indicators used for estimation of agricultural crops growing conditions and agroclimatic zoning. BCP assessments were one of the major lines of agroclimatic research in the end of XX century, but in recent years the number of works dedicated to the problem decreased. Due to significant changes of climate, which began in 1980s, and, consequently, changes of agroclimatic conditions, the assessment of current values of BCP becomes more relevant. Calculations of bioclimatic potential of the territory of Belarus according to methods developed by D. I. Shashko were performed for the period of 1977–2015. The BCP values obtained were specified by the effect of soil temperature at a certain depth and amount of solar radiation on the underlying surface according to methods developed by Z.A. Mishchenko and own approaches. Comparative analysis of BCP changes was performed for different periods of time. The analysis identified significant growth of BCP on the territory of Belarus during the last decades. Degree of increment of BCP was defined by spatio-temporal features of changes of temperature and precipitation. Introduction of soil temperature at a certain depth correction coefficient caused significant increases, and introduction of solar radiation correction coefficient caused minor decreases of BCP. Integral indicator of quality of growing conditions of agricultural plants on the basis of BCP and soil bonitet was calculated. Analysis of  the results obtained showed that the role of soil bonitet in final values of integral indicator is more important than the role of BCP. The results obtained show positive conditions for development of practical recommendations for cultivation of diverse agricultural crops, taking into account the spatial differences of agroclimatic conditions and changing climate in the last 2–3 decades.

1. Shashko D.I. Agroklimaticheskie resursy SSSR [Agroclimatic resources of the USSR]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1985. 247 p. (In Russian).

2. Koloskov P.I. Klimaticheskij faktor sel’skogo hozjajstva i agroklimaticheskoe rajonirovanie [Climatic factor of agriculture and agroclimatic zoning]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1974. 328 p. (In Russian).

3. Sapozhnikova S.A. Opyt agroklimaticheskogo rayonirovaniya territorii SSSR [Experience in agro-climatic zoning of the USSR]. Voprosy agroklimaticheskogo rayonirovaniya SSSR: sbornik statey [Issues of agroclimatic zoning of the USSR: collection of articles]. Moscow, 1958, pp. 14-37. (In Russian).

4. Shashko D.I. Agroklimaticheskoe rayonirovanie SSSR [Agroclimatic zoning of the USSR]. Moscow, Kolos Publ., 1967. 335 p.

5. Sirotenko O.D. Imitatsionnaya sistema «Klimat-urozhay SSSR» [Imitation system “climate-crop of the USSR”]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and Hydrology], 1995, no. 4, pp. 107-114. (In Russian).

6. Gordeev A.V., Kleshchenko A.D., Chernyakov B.A., Sirotenko O.D., Gordeev A.V. (ed.) Bioklimaticheskiy potentsial Rossii: teoriya i praktika [Bioclimatic potential of Russia: theory and practice]. Moscow, Association of scientific editions KMK, 2006. 516 p. (In Russian).

7. Sirotenko O.D., Avashina E.V., Pavlova V.N. Chuvstvitel’nost’ sel’skogo khozyaystva Rossii k izmeneniyam klimata, khimicheskogo sostava atmosfery i plodorodiya pochv [ Sensitivity of agriculture in Russia to climate change, atmospheric chemistry and soil fertility]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and Hydrology], 1991, no. 4, pp. 67-73. (In Russian).

8. Ulanova E.S. Agrometeorologicheskie usloviya i urozhaynost’ ozimoy pshenitsy [Agrometeorological conditions and winter wheat yield]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1975. 304 p. (In Russian).

9. Chirkov Yu.I. Agrometeorologicheskie usloviya i produktivnost’ kukuruzy [Agrometeorological conditions and maize productivity]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1969. 251 p. (In Russian).

10. Tooming Kh.G. Solnechnaya radiatsiya i formirovanie urozhaya [Solar radiation and crop formation]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1977. 200 p. (In Russian).

11. Vitchenko A.N. Teoreticheskie i prikladnye osnovy otsenki agroekologicheskogo potentsiala landshaftov Belarusi. Avtoref. diss. dokt. geogr. nauk [Theoretical and practical bases for estimation of agroecological potential of landscape in Belarus. Dr. geogr. sci. abstr. diss.]. Minsk, 1996. 29 p. (In Russian).

12. Kolyada V.V. Agroklimaticheskaja ocenka produktivnosti sel’skohozjajstvennyh kul’tur v Belarusi [Agroclimatic assessment of productivity of crops in Belarus]. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2014, no. 25, pp. 53-60. (In Russian).

13. Kolyada V.V. Bioklimaticheskij potencial Belarusi v sravnenii so stranami SNG i ES [Bioclimatic potential of Belarus in comparison with the CIS and EU countries]. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2013, no. 24, pp. 17-26. (In Russian).

14. Loginov V.F. Izmeneniya klimata v Belarusi i ikh posledstviya dlya klyuchevykh sektorov ekonomiki (sel’skoe, lesnoe i vodnoe khozyaystvo) [Climate change in Belarus and its impact on the key sectors of economy (agriculture, forestry and water sector)]. Minsk, BRC “Ecology” Publ., 2010. 152 p. (In Russian).

15. Loginov V.F. Otsenka neopredelennostey v izmenenii global’noy temperatury za period instrumental’nykh nablyudeniy [Assessment of uncertainties in global temperature change for the period of instrumental record]. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2015, no. 27, pp. 61-67. (In Russian).

16. Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M., Miller H.L. (eds.). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, 2007. 996 p.

17. Gusakov V. Strategija nacional’noj prodovol’stvennoj nezavisimosti [Strategy of the national food self-sufficiency]. Nauka i innovacii [Science and Innovation], 2007, no. 1, pp. 25-28. (In Russian).

18. Mishchenko Z.A. Agroklimatologiya [Agroclimatology]. Kiev, 2009. 512 p. (In Russian).

19. Usloviya zhizni sel’skokhozyaystvennykh rasteniy i ikh regulirovanie [Living conditions of agricultural plants and their regulation]. Available at: http://agrofak.com/zemledelie/usloviya-zhizni-selskoxozyajstvennyx-rastenij-i-ix-regulirovanie.html (accessed 13.09.2015). (In Russian).

20. Loginov V.F., Sachok G.I., Mikutskiy V.S., Mel’nik V.I., Kolyada V.V., Loginov V.F. (ed.) Izmenenija klimata Belarusi i ih posledstvija [Climate change in Belarus and its consequences]. Minsk, Tonpik Publ., 2003. 330 p. (In Russian).

21. Loginov V.F., Brovka Yu.A. Sezonnye osobennosti izmeneniya klimata Belarusi [Seasonal climate changes features of Belarus]. Prirodopol’zovanie: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Nature management: collection of scientific papers]. Minsk, 2014, no. 25, pp. 16-22. (In Russian).

22. Kondrat’ev K.Ya. Aktinometriya [Actinometers]. Leningrad : Hydrometeorological Publ., 1965. 692 p. (In Russian).

23. Zhuchenko A.A. Resursnyj potencial proizvodstva zerna v Rossii (teorija i praktika) [Resource potential of grain production in Russia (theory and practice)]. Moscow, Agrorus Publ., 2004. 1109 p.