SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES OF BIOCLIMATIC POTENTIAL OF THE TERRITORY OF BELARUS

Bioclimatic potential (BCP) is one of the most universal and practical comprehensive indicators used for estimation of agricultural crops growing conditions and agroclimatic zoning. BCP assessments were one of the major lines of agroclimatic research in the end of XX century, but in recent years the number of works dedicated to the problem decreased. Due to significant changes of climate, which began in 1980s, and, consequently, changes of agroclimatic conditions, the assessment of current values of BCP becomes more relevant. Calculations of bioclimatic potential of the territory of Belarus according to methods developed by D. I. Shashko were performed for the period of 1977–2015. The BCP values obtained were specified by the effect of soil temperature at a certain depth and amount of solar radiation on the underlying surface according to methods developed by Z.A. Mishchenko and own approaches. Comparative analysis of BCP changes was performed for different periods of time. The analysis identified significant growth of BCP on the territory of Belarus during the last decades. Degree of increment of BCP was defined by spatio-temporal features of changes of temperature and precipitation. Introduction of soil temperature at a certain depth correction coefficient caused significant increases, and introduction of solar radiation correction coefficient caused minor decreases of BCP. Integral indicator of quality of growing conditions of agricultural plants on the basis of BCP and soil bonitet was calculated. Analysis of  the results obtained showed that the role of soil bonitet in final values of integral indicator is more important than the role of BCP. The results obtained show positive conditions for development of practical recommendations for cultivation of diverse agricultural crops, taking into account the spatial differences of agroclimatic conditions and changing climate in the last 2–3 decades.

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